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To maximize her expected utility, which one of the following investment alternatives would she choose?

A.

A portfolio that pays 10 percent with 40 percent probability or 5 percent with a 60 percent probability.

B.

A portfolio that pays 12 percent with 20 percent probability or 2 percent with 80 percent probability.

C.

A portfolio that pays 10 percent with a 60 percent probability or 5 percent with 40 percent probability.

D.

A portfolio that pays 12 percent with 60 percent probability or 5 percent with 40 percent probability.

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A portfolio that pays 12 percent with 40 percent probability or 5 percent with 60 percent probability.

Trả lời:

Đáp án đúng: A


Để tối đa hóa lợi nhuận dự kiến, ta cần tính giá trị kỳ vọng của mỗi lựa chọn đầu tư và chọn lựa chọn có giá trị kỳ vọng cao nhất: A: 0.4 * 10% + 0.6 * 5% = 4% + 3% = 7% B: 0.2 * 12% + 0.8 * 2% = 2.4% + 1.6% = 4% C: 0.6 * 10% + 0.4 * 5% = 6% + 2% = 8% D: 0.6 * 12% + 0.4 * 5% = 7.2% + 2% = 9.2% E: 0.4 * 12% + 0.6 * 5% = 4.8% + 3% = 7.8% Lựa chọn D có giá trị kỳ vọng cao nhất (9.2%).

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